Smarter Task Estimating: Using Risk Bands & Monte Carlo for Realistic Schedules

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Event Description:

Tired of your project estimates being crushed by reality? You’re not alone—and there’s a smarter way forward. Join us on May 14th for a live MPUG event with Earned Value Management expert Eric Christoph, where we’ll break down a practical and risk-aware approach to task estimating that actually works in the real world.

In this session, you’ll learn how to go beyond gut-feel guesses and static durations by using a simple risk-based model that brings transparency, logic, and predictability to your schedules. You’ll walk away with a new mindset (and spreadsheet) that helps teams align around realistic expectations—and reduces the “schedule blame game” that derails so many projects.

Whether you manage Agile teams, large federal programs, or anything in between, this session will change the way you think about estimating—and make your next plan the one that actually delivers..

PMI PDUs: 1 Ways of Working, 0 Business Acumen, 0 Power Skills

Event Details

  • Date: Wednesday, May 14
  • Time: 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM EDT
  • Platform: Zoom
  • Duration: 60 minutes
  • PDU Credits: 1 PMI PDU (Ways of Working)

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Learning Objectives:

  • Explain the limitations of traditional single-point task estimates in dynamic project environments.
  • Define a risk-informed estimating model using best-case, most-likely, and worst-case scenarios.
  • Apply a simple 3-point estimating technique to improve schedule accuracy and stakeholder buy-in.
  • Integrate risk-based estimates into task planning workflows across Agile, waterfall, or hybrid projects.
  • Leverage the estimating model to facilitate better conversations around risk, uncertainty, and schedule realism with project stakeholders.
  • Utilize the model as a teaching and change management tool within project teams and PMOs.

Written by Eric Christoph
Earlier in his career Eric served as Corporate EVM Subject Matter Expert for L-3 Communications. In that role he implemented multiple EIA-748 Earned Value Management Systems (EVMS) and helped build baseline plans for over 100 projects and proposal efforts with a combined value over $400B. Eric also represented L-3 on the Board of the NDIA Integrated Program Management Division (IPMD) which oversees the EIA-748 standard. Over the last fifteen years Eric has contributed to several key guidance documents related to EVM including the PMI Practice Standard for EVM, MIL-STD-881, and GAO-16-89G. Today, Eric is a Senior Partner at Transformative Management Solutions where we help project teams and organizations implement EVM and Agile project control solutions using Microsoft Power Platform technologies.
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