Smarter Task Estimating: Using Risk Bands & Monte Carlo for Realistic Schedules
Smarter Task Estimating: Using Risk Bands & Monte Carlo for Realistic Schedules
Tired of your project estimates being crushed by reality? You're not alone—and there’s a smarter way forward. Join us on May 14th for a live MPUG event with Earned Value Management expert Eric Christoph, where we’ll break down a practical and risk-aware approach to task estimating that actually works in the real world.
What You'll Learn
Key takeaways from this session
Explain the limitations of traditional single-point task estimates in dynamic project environments.
Define a risk-informed estimating model using best-case, most-likely, and worst-case scenarios.
Apply a simple 3-point estimating technique to improve schedule accuracy and stakeholder buy-in.
Integrate risk-based estimates into task planning workflows across Agile, waterfall, or hybrid projects.
Leverage the estimating model to facilitate better conversations around risk, uncertainty, and schedule realism with project stakeholders.
Utilize the model as a teaching and change management tool within project teams and PMOs.
Earn PDU Credits
PMI Professional Development Units
Total PDUs Available
For credential maintenance
PDU Breakdown
Ways of Working
Technical & process skills
Business Acumen
Strategic & organizational
Power Skills
Leadership & interpersonal
Watch the complete webinar to claim your PDU credits and maintain your PMI certification.
About the Presenter
Eric Christoph
Earlier in his career Eric served as Corporate EVM Subject Matter Expert for L-3 Communications. In that role he implemented multiple EIA-748 Earned Value Management Systems (EVMS) and helped build baseline plans for over 100 projects and proposal efforts with a combined value over $400B. Eric also represented L-3 on the Board of the NDIA Integrated Program Management Division (IPMD) which oversees the EIA-748 standard. Over the last fifteen years Eric has contributed to several key guidance documents related to EVM including the PMI Practice Standard for EVM, MIL-STD-881, and GAO-16-89G. Today, Eric is a Senior Partner at Transformative Management Solutions where we help project teams and organizations implement EVM and Agile project control solutions using Microsoft Power Platform technologies.
