Why Your Project Schedules Are More Optimistic Than You Think

Every project manager has experienced it: the schedule that looked perfectly reasonable in the planning phase becomes a source of constant stress during execution. Deadlines slip, stakeholders grow impatient, and the knee-jerk response is often to approve overtime for everyone or throw more resources at the problem.

But what if the issue isn’t poor execution or bad estimating? What if your schedule was never realistic in the first place?

The Uncomfortable Truth About CPM Schedules

Here’s a fact that might sting: the project end date calculated by the Critical Path Method (CPM) is almost certainly wrong. Worse, it’s usually overly optimistic.

This isn’t a criticism of your planning skills or your team’s estimating abilities. It’s a mathematical reality built into how CPM scheduling works, and understanding it can save you from making expensive mistakes when deadlines start slipping.

The Hidden Culprit: Merge Bias

The problem has a name: merge bias. It occurs whenever activities in your schedule have multiple predecessors – which happens in virtually every project of any complexity.

Consider this simple example: You have two parallel activities, each with a 50% chance of finishing on time. Logic tells us the project should finish on time if both activities do. But let’s look at all possible outcomes:

• Activity A on time, Activity B on time = Project on time
• Activity A late, Activity B on time = Project late
• Activity A on time, Activity B late = Project late
• Activity A late, Activity B late = Project late

Even with this simple two-activity scenario, you only have a 25% chance of finishing on time. Three out of four possible outcomes result in project delay.

Now imagine a real project with dozens or hundreds of activities, many with multiple predecessors. As complexity increases, the probability of meeting your CPM-calculated dates decreases dramatically.

Why This Matters for Schedule Crashing

When deadlines slip and pressure mounts, many project managers default to across-the-board solutions: approve overtime for all resources, add people to every workstream, or compress all activities equally. These approaches are not only expensive – they’re often ineffective.

Understanding merge bias and schedule uncertainty helps you make smarter decisions about where to focus your crashing efforts. Not all delays are created equal, and not all acceleration efforts will actually move your delivery date.

The Power of Sensitivity Analysis

Before you start throwing money at schedule problems, take a step back and analyze which activities actually drive your project’s variability. Tools like tornado charts can quickly identify:

• Which activities most impact your delivery date
• Where schedule compression will provide the biggest benefit
• Which paths through your project create the most risk

This analysis transforms schedule crashing from a expensive shotgun approach into a surgical strike that targets the activities that truly matter.

Back to Basics: Timeless Principles Still Apply

These concepts aren’t new – they’re fundamental principles of project scheduling that remain just as relevant today as they were decades ago. Whether you’re managing an Agile transformation or a traditional construction project, the mathematics of project networks haven’t changed.

The key is combining this understanding with practical application. Knowing that your schedule is likely optimistic due to merge bias doesn’t help unless you know what to do about it during execution.

The Strategic Approach to Schedule Recovery

When faced with schedule pressure, consider this sequence:

1. Understand your critical path – not just the current one, but how it might shift
2. Identify merge points – activities with multiple predecessors that create bottlenecks
3. Analyze sensitivity – which activities drive the most schedule variability
4. Target your interventions – focus resources where they’ll actually impact delivery
5. Balance cost and time – optimize for the best return on your acceleration investment

This methodical approach often reveals that selective crashing of a few key activities is far more effective than expensive broad-based acceleration efforts.

Making Better Decisions Under Pressure

The next time you’re facing schedule pressure, resist the urge to immediately approve overtime for everyone. Instead, invest time in understanding which activities truly drive your project’s success. The few hours spent on proper analysis can save thousands in unnecessary acceleration costs.

Remember: surprises cost money. Understanding the fundamental uncertainty in your schedules helps you manage expectations, make better resource allocation decisions, and ultimately deliver more successful projects.

The principles are timeless, but their application requires both understanding and practical skill – exactly the combination needed to master the art of strategic schedule management.

This article draws insights from “Understanding and Managing Uncertainty in Schedules” by John Owen of Barbecana Inc. Want to dive deeper into schedule risk analysis? Download the complete PDF presentation for detailed examples and technical guidance.

Ready to see these principles in action? Join Tony Woodrich tomorrow for “Crashing the CPM Schedule” – a hands-on demonstration of strategic schedule compression using real project data. Register now to earn 1 PDU while mastering practical cost-effective crashing techniques.

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